An overview and a case study of pavement performance prediction

This study reviews methods for the development of performance prediction expressions for flexible and rigid pavements, and the application of performance estimation routines for planning and maintenance. Using Pavespec 3.0, 200 simulations are completed, using as-constructed pavement system data from the Ohio Route 50 project as inputs. Observed distress data trends are used for calibration, and simulations for the service life of the test pavement are generated. It is found that determining the long-term performance of a pavement using observations spanning over a small fraction of its design life and a set of purely statistical/empirical algorithms poses significant engineering interpretation challenges. Nonetheless, it is found that the test pavement may be expected to fail due to transverse cracking long before it exhibits objectionable extents of spalling, or even before it becomes too rough. Neither the existence nor the type of sealant treatment used is likely to influence the progression of cracking.