Cardiorespiratory optimal point during exercise testing as a predictor of all-cause mortality

Introduction and Aim The cardiorespiratory optimal point (COP) is a novel index, calculated as the minimum oxygen ventilatory equivalent (VE/VO 2 ) obtained during cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET). In this study we demonstrate the prognostic value of COP both independently and in combination with maximum oxygen consumption (VO 2 max) in community-dwelling adults. Methods Maximal cycle ergometer CPET was performed in 3331 adults (66% men) aged 40-85 years, healthy (18%) or with chronic disease (81%). COP cut-off values of <22, 22-30, and >30 were selected based on the log-rank test. Risk discrimination was assessed using COP as an independent predictor and combined with VO 2 max. Results Median follow-up was 6.4 years (7.1% mortality). Subjects with COP >30 demonstrated increased mortality compared to those with COP <22 (hazard ratio [HR] 6.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.69-12.75, p<0.001). Multivariate analysis including gender, age, body mass index, and the forced expiratory volume in 1 s/vital capacity ratio showed adjusted HR for COP >30 of 3.72 (95% CI 1.98-6.98; p<0.001) and for COP 22-30 of 2.15 (95% CI 1.15-4.03, p<0.001). Combining COP and VO 2 max data further enhanced risk discrimination. Conclusions COP >30, either independently or in combination with low VO 2 max, is a good predictor of all-cause mortality in community-dwelling adults (healthy or with chronic disease). COP is a submaximal prognostic index that is simple to obtain and adds to CPET assessment, especially for adults unable or unwilling to achieve maximal exercise.