Predicting the Frequencies of High Chlorophyll Levels in Florida Lakes from Average Chlorophyll or Nutrient Data

An alternative to using average concentrations of phytoplankton chlorophyll in setting lake management goals is to use the frequency that chlorophyll concentrations exceed an established nuisance level. We analyzed 1473 lake-years of data on 438 Florida lakes to develop a series of tables that can be used to predict the frequencies that phytoplankton chlorophylls will exceed concentrations of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 mg m−3 in Florida lakes based on the annual average concentrations of chlorophyll, total phosphorus, or total nitrogen. Different tables were created for lakes grouped by TN/TP ratios of >17, <17 but >10, and <10. These tables can be directly applied towards setting lake management goals for those Florida lakes that lack sufficient data to construct their own bloom frequency curves.