Promoting synergistic development of wind power hydrogen production system and fuel cell vehicle in China: A subjective game perspective

Driven by the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the synergistic development of a wind power hydrogen production system (WPHPS) and fuel cell vehicle (FCV) constitutes a pathway to lower wind curtailment and reduce carbon emissions in the transportation sector. This study investigates the evolutionary process of strategic behaviors between WPHPS and FCV based on a subjective game model, conducts empirical analysis in China, analyzes four regions’ heterogeneity, and conducts sensitivity analysis of core factors, including subsidy policies, hydrogen prices, and hydrogen demand. The results indicate that: (1) the evolutionary process of strategic behaviors presents dynamic characteristics of “cognitive accumulation – strategy sets expansion – equilibrium reconstruction.” When the game reaches a long-term stable equilibrium, the probabilities of “both parties cooperate” and “both parties do not cooperate” stabilize at 0.3729 and 0.1998, respectively; (2) regional heterogeneity influences the strategic behaviors and game equilibrium. Supported by high hydrogen prices and comprehensive subsidies, Southern China achieves the highest cooperation probability of 0.7102, ranking first, followed by North and Central China, East China, and Northwest China, with cooperation probabilities of 0.3923, 0.3362, and 0.3298, respectively; and (3) The sensitivity order of the core factors affecting the cooperation probability is hydrogen price, demand, and subsidy policy. This study expands the application boundary of subjective game theory in the field of WPHPS and FCV, and provides practical implications for market mechanism optimization and policy formulation.