Time-series structural equation modelling reveals alcohol-related disease burden reduced economic output in Southeast Asian adults, highlighting the hidden economic toll of drinking.
Key Points
To quantify the macro-level relationships between alcohol exposure, population disease burden, and economic output across ASEAN member countries between 2000 and 2023.
Conducted structural equation modelling (SEM) using international agency time-series data spanning 2000–2023 across nine ASEAN member nations.
Evaluated macroeconomic measures (GDP and GNI per capita at purchasing power parity), alcohol exposure indicators, and disease burden metrics (all-cause mortality and DALYs) among adults aged 15 to 65 years.
SEM revealed a positive association between alcohol use indicators and disease burden, which subsequently exerted a negative effect on economic output.
In 2021, alcohol-attributable mortality accounted for 5% of all-cause mortality across the region in adults aged 15–65, exceeding 10% in three countries, with similar proportions observed for DALYs.
Main model point estimates indicated that alcohol-attributable health burden reduced GDP PPP per capita by as much as 4%.