Carbon-Sink-Oriented Marine Fishery System Resilience Across Nine Coastal Provincial-Level Regions in China: A Fixed-Reference Assessment and Forecastability Audit

Marine fishery system resilience supports ecological and productive functions under interacting environmental and socioeconomic pressures. We assessed resilience and forecastability using 117 region–year observations from nine Chinese coastal provincial-level regions during 2011–2023. A fixed-reference Resistance–Adaptability–Recovery index combined equal and entropy weights calibrated on 2011–2018 data. We evaluated autocorrelation-adjusted trends, measurement sensitivity, regional score distributions, conditional associations using geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), and rolling-origin forecast performance. The mean index increased from 0.307 in 2011 to 0.426 in 2023, and eight regions retained significant monotonic increases after false-discovery-rate correction. Alternative weighting, calibration, indicator-deletion, and aggregation specifications preserved the positive temporal direction while producing moderate rank variation. GTWR yielded the lowest in-sample AICc among the three regression specifications, supporting a spatiotemporally varying representation of conditional associations. Under rolling-origin testing, particle swarm optimization-tuned support vector regression produced an RMSE of 0.0318, whereas persistence achieved the lowest RMSE (0.0246) and lower region-level RMSE in seven of nine regions. Accordingly, the 2024–2030 results were reported as conditional scenarios. Eight regional specification ranges crossed zero; Guangdong remained positive across the nine specified trend-window and weighting combinations. The framework improves temporal comparability and separates historical assessment, spatial association analysis, and forecast evaluation.