Empty Spaces and Cold Beds: Modeling the Construction–Demography Gap in Tourist Destinations

This study examines the paradox of rapid urban development in tourist destinations experiencing demographic decline. By developing a new model to calculate the Construction-Demography Gap (CDG) and its tourism-adjusted variant (TCDG), the research explores the case of North Macedonia. The mismatch between housing construction, demographic trends, and tourism activity is quantified, revealing high vacancy rates and unsustainable development that disturb the environment and diminish residents’ quality of life. Detailed field observations, allow a discussion on the socio-economic impacts of these trends. The findings reveal that overbuilding exacerbates housing affordability issues and economic inefficiencies while pressuring the urban space. This research contributes to the theory of “urban shrinkage” by showing how speculative tourism development masks demographic decline, creating a false impression of vitality in tourist destinations while simultaneously decreasing local livability. The suggested model can be easily adopted and applied to any tourism destination seeking to balance tourism development with both local economy and community resilience amidst demographic decline.