Shockproof or exposed? The moderating role of tariff shocks in the link between artificial intelligence and firm supply chain resilience

Amid escalating global trade tensions and the ongoing reconfiguration of global supply chains, tariff shocks pose a significant threat to firms’ supply chain security, while artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly regarded as a pivotal strategic instrument for forging supply chain resilience (SCR). Drawing on dynamic capabilities theory, the knowledge-based view, and resource constraint theory, and using panel data from Chinese A-share listed firms between 2013 and 2023, this study examines the impact of AI on SCR, the mediating role of key technology breakthrough (KeyTech), and the moderating effect of tariff shocks. The findings reveal that AI significantly enhances SCR. KeyTech partially mediates this relationship, indicating that AI strengthens resilience both by improving operational efficiency and by fostering structural knowledge creation. Crucially, tariff shocks weaken the direct positive effect of AI on SCR: the resilience-enhancing effect of AI is markedly weaker for firms exposed to tariff shocks. This study identifies a resource-constraint boundary condition for AI-enabled SCR and offers empirical evidence and managerial implications to help firms to navigate tariff shocks and build resilient supply chains in the new trade era.