Scenario-Based Environmental Risk Assessment of Oil Spills in an Inland Maritime Port Adjacent to Natura 2000 Wetlands: A Case Study of the Port of Szczecin

Accidental oil spills in estuarine ports pose a significant environmental threat. Confined waterways, complex hydrodynamics, and proximity to protected ecosystems limit the time available for effective emergency response. The PISCES II oil spill simulator used for this study assesses the environmental consequences of accidental oil spills in one of the polish ports, Port of Szczecin. The analysis was conducted for the spill of two petroleum products (IFO300 and Diesel Fuel Oil (DFO)) under various wind directions and speed. Numerical simulations were combined with a comparative Environmental Consequence Index based on shoreline contact time, stranded oil, contamination of Natura 2000 habitats and shoreline contamination extent; emergency-response implications were evaluated separately from the composite index. The results indicate that wind direction, wind speed, spill location and the geometry of the port basin were the main factors controlling the simulated spill trajectories under the adopted modeling assumptions. South and south-westerly winds produced the greatest impacts by transporting oil towards the Lower Odra Valley Natura 2000 protected area, whereas spills within confined industrial basins caused rapid shoreline contamination but lower ecological exposure. The type of oil primarily affected the chemical processes occurring in a specific spill such as dispersion and evaporation, rather than the trajectory of the spill. Although the simulations were not validated against historical spill data, the proposed methodology provides a documented scenario-based methodology for identifying environmentally critical spill scenarios and supporting contingency planning in estuarine ports adjacent to protected ecosystems.