An analogy between sandpile relaxation and the evolution of the drift wave spectrum by zonal flow induced shearing is used to characterize the probability distribution function of fluctuations in the drift wave population density Ñ , and thus address the predictability of intermittency in drift wave-zonal flow turbulence. Basic conservation and symmetry properties are used to derive a generalized Burgers equation for Ñ in the radial wave number k r . Shocks are symptomatic of shearing events, which are analogous to avalanches in the sandpile. The pdf P (Δ Ñ ) is shown to be intrinsically asymmetric in k r and the asymptotic behaviors of both left and right tails are determined. The implications of these results for transport are discussed.
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Diamond et al. (2001) studied this question.