Predictors of Survival in Geriatric Mental Illness During the Eleven Years After Initial Hospital Admission*

In 1959, a study was made of 534 patients aged 60 or older admitted to the psychiatric observation ward of the San Francisco General Hospital. In a two‐year follow‐up period it was found that orientation, performance on the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, and ability for physical and social self‐maintenance were favorable prognostic signs. In 1970, data were available on 463 of the original sample, and unavailable on 71 (not included in this report). The proportion of survivors (which had been 67 per cent at one year) decreased steadily to 6 per cent at eleven years. The variables that were related to prognosis two years after admission continued to be the only significant predictors of survival; no new factors were established. The same trend was observed in a non‐hospital community sample of subjects. However, mortality was far greater in the hospital sample.