As part of a longitudinal study of health and aging, the conditions and motivational factors that prospectively predicted either cessation or reduction in alcohol consumption were compared. Data were from 1,517 community-dwelling men who in 1973 (Time 1) and 1982 (Time 2) completed mailed questionnaires about their drinking behaviors. Time 2 quitters (n = 62) had consumed no alcohol for at least the 6 months before that survey; reducers (n = 255) had decreased their yearly alcohol consumption by at least one-half. Compared to 971 controls, quitters reported more drinking problems at Time 1; reducers reported higher consumption at Time 1, which was the only factor predictive of subsequent reduction (p less than .001). Regression analyses considering contextual-motivational factors for drinking showed that at Time 1 quitters were less likely than controls to have consumed alcohol during evenings out (p = .008), in family-home settings (p = .013), or for salutary reasons (p = .084); conversely, they were more likely to have consumed alcohol to reduce negative affect (p = .011). Reducers cited more social-situational reasons for curtailing drinking; quitters cited more personal reasons related to health and alcohol effects. These findings indicate that in a community sample of men, problematic drinking behaviors tend to predict subsequent abstention rather than reduced drinking.
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Hermos et al. (1988) studied this question.