The Contextual Effects of Race on White Voter Behavior: The 1989 New York City Mayoral Election

This analysis brings together two long-standing research traditions in political science. One tradition, beginning with Key (1949), focuses on the negative reaction white voters exhibit when located in areas of relatively higher levels of black voter density as measured at the county and/or state level. The second tradition, which can be traced back to Tingsten (1963) and Berelson, Lazarsfeld, and McPhee (1954), illustrates how the immediate social context within which voters find themselves exerts a positive influence on their electoral behavior. This study links these two traditions by examining the effect of black density at the local level on white voter behavior. The analysis finds that the level of black voter density at the local level positively influences the probability that a white voter in that locale will vote for a black candidate. The implications of this finding are discussed in the conclusion.