Using egg flotation and eggshell evidence to determine age and fate of Arctic shorebird nests

Egg flotation was used to estimate incubation age and eggshell evidence was collected to determine nest fate at nests of 11 species of shorebirds on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska during 2002–2004. We present egg-flotation schedules for nine species to facilitate the estimation of nest age. We evaluated the predictive ability of an egg-flotation schedule for Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) and were able to estimate incubation age within ∼1–3 d of the assumed age. Patterns of eggshell evidence were similar across species, with eggshell fragments (1–5 mm) present at most successful nests (96%) and eggshell tops or bottoms present only at successful nests. We determined nest fate independently of eggshell evidence and then used discriminant function analysis to predict the probability of correctly classifying a nest's fate using different types of eggshell evidence. The use of eggshell fragment evidence resulted in the correct classification of the fate of all 11 species of shorebirds in 92% of the cases. Both the egg-flotation technique and eggshell evidence can be used in future studies to calculate accurate measures of reproductive success needed for ecological investigations of shorebirds.