Arms control and innovation: Precedents for U.S.-Russian technology regulation from the Cold War

When might decision-makers in Washington and Moscow perceive limits on emerging technology to be to their mutual advantage? Mainstream arms control theory suggests that interest in arms control may emerge early in the innovation process, but the literature on competitive arms control suggests the opposite. To determine which expectations are supported, I present a mixed methods analysis of the pursuit of strategic missiles and efforts to limit them between 1951 and 1979. The results, which support the competitive arms control school and directly challenge the theory of the nuclear revolution, suggest that neither side will likely be interested in limiting specific emerging technologies before the point of mass production and deployment.