The ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 Low Emission marker scenario: Holding warming likely below 2°C in a middle-of-the-road world

Oliver Fricko; Yazhen Wu; Shaohui Zhang; Stefan Frank; Mykola Gusti; Lena Höglund-Isaksson; Aneeque Javaid; Siddharth Joshi; Diogo Kramel; Florian Maczek; Alessio Mastrucci; Setu Pelz; Yoga Wienda Pratama; Holger Rogner; Jun U. Shepard; Juliana Arbeláez Gaviria; Luca Casamassima; Jinfeng Chang; Matthew Gidden; Anders Hammer Strømman; Yiyi Ju; Jarmo Kikstra; Paul Natsuo Kishimoto; Marta Kozicka; Tamás Krisztin; David Leclère; Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik; Measrainsey Meng; Amanda Palazzo; Miguel Poblete-Cazenave; Pallav Purohit; Leopold Johannes Christian Ringwald; Sibylle Rouet-Pollakis; Gamze Ünlü; Adriano Vinca; Fabian Wagner; Wilfried Winiwarter; Michael Wögerer; Jung‐Hun Woo; Behnam Zakeri; Xiuming Zhang; Zbigniew Klimont; Shonali Pachauri; Peter Havlík; Bas van Ruijven; Keywan Riahi; Volker Krey

doi:10.5281/zenodo.22233361

September 2, 2026Open Access

The ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 Low Emission marker scenario: Holding warming likely below 2°C in a middle-of-the-road world

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Key Points

Define and evaluate the ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 low-emission marker scenario designed to keep global mean warming likely below 2°C under intermediate socioeconomic development conditions.
Simulated global greenhouse gas emissions and radiative forcing pathways within the ScenarioMIP framework for CMIP7.
Developed marker trajectories integrating moderate socioeconomic trends with ambitious decarbonization policies.
Identified an emissions pathway capable of maintaining global temperature increases likely below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels.
Demonstrated that intermediate socioeconomic development pathways remain compatible with strict international climate stabilization goals through targeted mitigation.

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Implication

Climate modeling analysis demonstrates feasibility of limiting warming below 2°C under middle-of-the-road pathways, highlighting achievable decarbonization targets.

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Fricko et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a9a862b5d9e33f25c631bc2 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22233361

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The ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 Low Emission marker scenario: Holding warming likely below 2°C in a middle-of-the-road world

Key Points

No abstract yet

Implication

Abstract

Discussion

Cite This Study

The ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 Low Emission marker scenario: Holding warming likely below 2°C in a middle-of-the-road world

Key Points

No abstract yet

Implication

Abstract

Discussion

Cite This Study

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