Simulation-based smart emission reduction and energy security using renewable energy bonds, AI-green bonds, and incentive mechanisms

This study examines the role of Smart Emission Control System and Energy Security in reducing carbon dioxide emissions and improving profitability in a supply chain consisting of 500 manufacturers, agents, and retailers. An integrated framework combining game theory, simulation-based optimization, and decision modeling was developed to analyze simultaneous adoption decisions among stakeholders. Four scenarios were evaluated. Without adopting Smart Emission Control System or Energy Security, profits remained low at 11, 12, and 14.5 million RMBs. Adoption of only Energy Security slightly improved profits to 11.8, 12.6, and 15.0 million RMBs, but high carbon dioxide emissions limited further gains. Adoption of only Smart Emission Control System reduced carbon-related costs and increased profits to 12.3, 13.2, and 15.4 million RMBs, demonstrating that emission-reduction technologies create financial benefits across the entire supply chain. The combined adoption of Smart Emission Control System and Energy Security generated the highest profits of 13.7, 14.8, and 17.1 million RMBs. The study also shows that incentives for Smart Emission Control Systems-based green bonds and renewable-energy-based Energy Security bonds significantly improve stakeholder profitability by reducing implementation and environmental compliance costs. Simultaneous incentives for both mechanisms provide stronger financial benefits than isolated incentives. The findings indicate that profit-driven incentives play a more important role than regulatory pressure in encouraging sustainable adoption decisions. This study contributes to supply chain management theory by integrating game theory, simulation-based optimization, and decision modeling into a unified framework for adaptive multi-tier sustainable decision making. The results suggest that coordinated incentives, carbon pricing, and policy subsidies are essential for promoting low-carbon industrial development and sustainable supply chain transformation.