Finding Confidence Limits on Population Growth Rates: Monte Carlo Test of a Simple Analytic Method

Estimates of population growth rates are subject to uncertainties because of errors incurred in estimating the individual rates of fecundity, survival and growth. However, the non-linear relationship between the population growth rate and the vital rates makes this a difficult task, and confidence limits are rarely assigned to growth rate estimates. The mean and standard error of the population growth rate may be approximated using a Taylor's series expansion. Assuming a particular type of sampling distribution for the population rate, one may use this analytic estimate to assign confidence limits. Available simulations do not enable generalizations concerning the performance of this analytic approach, especially for estimates obtained for age or stage-structured populations