Psychological and human security in post-conflict Western Balkans: between formal stability and the risk of conflict recurrence

This article examines the relationship between psychological and human security in post-conflict settings and considers how different configurations of structural and perceptual vulnerability may be relevant to persistent insecurity and the broader risk of conflict recurrence in the Western Balkans. Focusing on Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and North Macedonia, the study employs a qualitative comparative design based on secondary data, institutional reports, policy documents, and academic literature. It distinguishes psychological security, understood through perceptions of threat, trust, uncertainty, belonging, and predictability, from the material, socio-economic, and institutional dimensions of human security. The comparative analysis suggests that the relationship between these dimensions varies across the three cases. Bosnia and Herzegovina shows comparatively strong convergence between structural and psychological insecurity; Kosovo presents a mixed pattern, including structural–perceptual divergence; while North Macedonia indicates partial convergence towards greater security alongside continuing vulnerabilities. The available evidence for reciprocal reinforcement is limited. The findings suggest that formal stability and lived security need not develop along the same trajectory. By examining convergence and divergence between structural and perceptual dimensions, the article seeks to contribute to a more differentiated understanding of post-conflict insecurity and its implications for durable stability.