Backtesting analysis demonstrates that tight phase distance filtering causes overfitting in execution models, suggesting apparent win rate gains sacrifice overall profitability.
DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No phase-distance filter survives — the ≤2° cutoff is a statistical artifact of a 411-trade sample, not a geometric invariant. E8 timing already encodes phase via Gods-Clock rhythm; adding a second, redundant phase filter risks double-counting the same variable and overfitting to a narrow window. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win rate may appear +4.3pp in backtest, but trade count drops ~30% (frequency sacrificed), and net PnL likely flat or negative because the filter removes both losers and high-R winners that sit just outside 2°. Sharpe may improve marginally, but only if the phase metric is stable — which it is not across regimes. RISK: Phase drift (Gods-Clock rhythm shifts with volatility regime) makes the 2° cutoff brittle. In trending markets, high-quality entries often occur at wider phase distances; the filter would exclude them, degrading the fade edge that is the model's core alpha. Also, the filter's rejection of XAUUSD SHORTs in the live window is hindsi Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
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Andrew Stewart Caldin (2026) studied this question.
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