Revisiting the impact of floods on the agriculture sector: quantitative and qualitative evidences from Assam, India

Floods are a recurrent phenomenon in the Indian state of Assam, with nearly 39% land classified as flood-prone. This increases the vulnerability of the agriculture sector that supports around 70% of the state’s population either directly or indirectly. While extensive research exists on the effects of floods and climate change on the agriculture sector, only a few explain their direct long-run consequences and the micro-level adaptive responses. We fill this gap by analysing the impact of floods and climate variability on the primary sector by considering Assam’s agricultural gross value added (GVA), that embodies the sector’s real economic performance in comparison to the aggregate gross domestic product, for the period 1980–2023. We found statistically significant bidirectional relationship between floods and GVA, along with interactions between floods and local climatic conditions. The findings demonstrate that environmental shocks directly affect agricultural performance. We also observe that adaptive capacity and resilience of the agriculture system are impacted indirectly. Therefore, there is a need to understand how adaptation policies need to be designed so that the resilience of the sector improves. Qualitative analysis of survey data collected from a sample of 436 farm households across 16 villages in the Brahmaputra valley, capturing local perceptions, and coping strategies help us in this direction. The study underscore mediating role of adaptive capacity, a key contribution of the study. Results emphasizes the need for a pro-active disaster risk reduction programme. Overall, the study informs policymakers that they should develop targeted strategies to further lower the adverse effects of floods and climate variability on the agricultural sector.