Key result
The ACS-NSQIP risk calculator showed good discrimination for any complication (AUC 0.741) in patients ≥85 years undergoing cholecystectomy, but underestimated urgent surgery morbidity (60% vs 17%).
Why the study?
Cholecystectomy safety in very elderly patients remains a concern, making accurate risk prediction tools essential to guide decision-making in this vulnerable group.
Does the ACS-NSQIP risk calculator accurately predict postoperative complications and mortality in patients ≥85 years undergoing cholecystectomy?
Population
85 patients ≥85 years of age undergoing cholecystectomy for symptomatic cholelithiasis
Comparison
ACS-NSQIP predicted risk vs observed postoperative outcomes
Design
Retrospective cohort study
Authors
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Caution advised for urgent cholecystectomy in patients ≥85 years; leaves open need for urgent-specific recalibration of the ACS-NSQIP calculator.
Cohort (n=85)
No
Does the ACS-NSQIP risk calculator accurately predict postoperative complications and mortality in patients ≥85 years undergoing cholecystectomy?
Effect estimate: AUC 0.741
The ACS-NSQIP risk calculator adequately predicts risk in elective cholecystectomies for patients ≥85 years but significantly underestimates morbidity and mortality in urgent cases.
Juez et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in symptomatic cholelithiasis (n=85). ACS-NSQIP risk calculator was evaluated on Discrimination for any complication (AUC 0.741). The ACS-NSQIP risk calculator showed good discrimination for any complication (AUC 0.741) in patients ≥85 years undergoing cholecystectomy, but underestimated urgent surgery morbidity (60% vs 17%).
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