Systematic Investigation of China’s CO2 Emissions with Driving Force Model: Historical Evolution and Future Trends

China contributes the largest to CO 2 emissions and plays a significant role in global environmental protection. The factors that affect China’s CO 2 emissions are complex. In this study, a quantitative evaluation was established to assess the influencing factors of CO 2 emissions in China and representative provinces by developing a driving force model, combining the multiple linear regression with principal component analysis by considering cement industry, fossil utilization industry, industrial energy consumption, residential energy consumption, traffic energy consumption, and energy structure. The results reveal that the relationships between the influencing factors and CO 2 emissions vary among provinces and sectors. The future trends of China’s CO 2 emissions are predicted based on the evolution of the influencing factors. China’s CO 2 emissions will peak by 2026 and reach the amount of 10.06 billion tons with current policies. Earlier peak by 2022 and a smaller amount of 9.92 billion tons will occur with technology breakthrough. Based on the results, this study recommends to reform heavy industries, increase energy efficiency, improve energy structure, and especially encourage fossil utilization for CO 2 reduction. This study provides a theoretical basis for multiple factor analysis and a deeper understanding of China’s CO 2 emissions for policymakers.