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Quantitative modeling study demonstrates a price continuation edge in currency and commodity markets, indicating predictable momentum following extreme daily closes.
{ "name": "prior_day_close_relative_strength_continuation", "source": "Trading literature / well-documented effect: close relative to prior day's range predicts next period direction in FX/gold (e.g., 'overnight gap and close strength' effect)", "type": "entry_engine", "rule": "Enter long at open of next bar if prior day's close is in top 20% of its daily range and current bar opens above prior day's high; enter short at open if prior day's close is in bottom 20% and current bar opens below prior day's low; exit after 3 bars or 1 ATR profit target.", "pseudocode": "for daily_bars in data: rng = high - low if close < low + 0.2*rng: bias = -1 elif close > high - 0.2*rng: bias = +1 else: skip next_open = next bar open if bias==+1 and next_open > daily_high: entry = next_open target = entry + 1*ATR(14) stop = entry - 1*ATR(14) exit after 3 bars if bias==-1 and next_open < daily_low: entry = next_open target = Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
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Andrew Stewart Caldin (2026) studied this question.
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