Impacts of warming-induced precipitation phase shifts on soil erosion over the Qinghai-Tibet plateau

Study region The study covers the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), where climate warming is shifting precipitation from solid to liquid forms, potentially altering soil erosion risk. Study focus We estimated erosion using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation, quantified phase change with the rainfall ratio to precipitation (RRP), characterized event-scale intensity by the maximum 60-min intensity ( I 60 ), and identified dominant drivers using an interpretable XGBoost-SHAP framework. New hydrological insights for the region RRP increased across most of the QTP, but its linkage with rainfall erosivity was strongly season-dependent, with the closest coupling occurring in autumn ( ρ = 0.683, p < 0.001). At the interannual scale, RRP was positively correlated with I 60 ( ρ = 0.710, p < 0.001), while I 60 was also positively associated with rainfall erosivity ( ρ = 0.647, p = 0.002), indicating a process linkage among precipitation-phase shifts, short-duration rainfall intensity, and erosive forcing. Rainfall (38.4%) and slope (27.2%) remained the primary controls on spatial erosion heterogeneity, whereas RRP (7.8%) acted as a secondary regulator. Erosion responses shifted markedly across 4500–5500 m, where vegetation buffering weakened and sensitivity to precipitation-phase variability increased. These findings improve understanding of how precipitation-phase shifts and event-scale intensity shape erosive forcing, while supporting elevation-specific soil conservation under continued warming.