Panel data analysis reveals nonlinear impacts of temperature shocks on urban resilience across Chinese coastal cities, highlighting severe vulnerabilities to extreme cold events.
Key Points
To evaluate the nonlinear impacts of extreme temperature shocks on the resilience of coastal cities in China and uncover the underlying transmission mechanisms.
Constructed a coastal urban resilience evaluation index based on the Pressure–State–Response (PSR) framework, weighted using the entropy weight method.
Analyzed high-resolution gridded meteorological data from 2007 to 2020 using a panel fixed effects model with multiple temperature bins and dimensional decomposition.
Coastal urban resilience showed a significant long-term upward trend from 2007 to 2020, though cities remained vulnerable to acute short-term shocks.
Moderately high temperatures (25 °C to 30 °C) significantly decreased urban resilience (p < 0.01), while extreme high temperatures (> 30 °C) showed no statistically significant effect.
Extreme low temperature intervals ((−10 °C, −5 °C] and ≤ 10 °C) produced significantly larger negative shocks than moderate heat, disrupting all three Pressure–State–Response subsystems.