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Theoretical framework reveals dynamic interdependence across stochastic fields in financial markets, highlighting how macro-level disruptions distort micro-asset probabilities.
This paper proposes an expanded theoretical and mathematical paradigm of the "probabilistic box", which views reality as a closed continuum of continuously intertwining, dynamically interdependent stochastic fields. In contrast to classical static frequentist and axiomatic approaches, the authors introduce the concept of end-to-end dynamic dependence between fundamentally disparate processes. Probability flows are classified into laminar and turbulent ones by analogy with fluid dynamics. The mathematical apparatus describes the mechanism of instantaneous transfer and dissipation of probability mass under forced artificial changes in the phase state of an isolated process. A separate econometric chapter applies this framework to global financial markets, analyzing how macroscopic laminar force-majeures distort the turbulent probabilities of micro-assets. A detailed specification of a macroscopic physical experiment based on a two-circuit Galton board is presented, alongside a deconstruction of archaic cultural superstitions as intuitive mapping attempts of stochastic interconnections.
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Grib Fingers (2026) studied this question.
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