Building Stochastic Non-Stationary Daily Load/Generation Profiles for Distribution Planning Studies

This paper proposes a new method to generate synthetic load and generation profiles that can be customized to simulate different groups of consumers or energy production technologies. The method relies upon generic individual profiles and specific aggregate profiles to set up a discrete-time non-stationary Markov process that realistically reproduces high-resolution daily load volatility and time-dependency. The framework to set up the process and the details for its parameterization are provided in the paper for arbitrary load-discretization and time-resolution. Three examples with real data and 15 min resolution are used to discuss the limitations of the method proposed and the accuracy of its results.