Presidents, prices at the pump, and the difference in perceptions between energy market experts and non-experts

We conduct a survey of US-based energy market experts and non-experts and find that non-experts are significantly more likely to believe the US President plays a major role in determining retail fuel prices. Next, we analyze weekly retail gasoline and diesel price data from the US, UK, France, and Canada under different heads of state. After controlling for fluctuations in the wholesale crude oil price, country-specific long-run averages in prices, common time shocks, and national fuel excise taxes, we find that fuel prices differ systematically across leaders, though not universally. Although we do not claim to have established a causal link between executive regime change and retail fuel price variation, our fuel price analysis does help explain why many people believe political executives can influence retail gasoline prices, a phenomenon with important political and macroeconomic ramifications.