Key result
The Japan Heart Failure Model accurately predicted 5-year survival in Japanese patients with heart failure, achieving a C-statistic of 0.717 in the validation cohort compared to 0.681 for the Seattle Heart Failure Model.
Why the study?
Accurate prognosis for HF survival is important for quality of life, treatment decisions, and early evaluation of new therapies and devices, prompting the development of a predictive risk model for Japanese patients using clinical parameters.
Does the Japan Heart Failure Model accurately predict survival in Japanese patients with heart failure compared to the Seattle Heart Failure Model?
Cohort (n=1,214)
Yes
Does the Japan Heart Failure Model accurately predict survival in Japanese patients with heart failure compared to the Seattle Heart Failure Model?
The Japan Heart Failure Model (JHFM) provides a more accurate prediction of 5-year survival in Japanese patients with heart failure compared to the Seattle Heart Failure Model.
Supports JHFM for 5-year HF survival prediction in Japanese patients; leaves open prospective validation and outcome impact.
Background: Accurate prognosis for heart failure (HF) survival is important for quality of life, treatment decisions, and early evaluation of new therapies and devices. Here, we developed a multivariate risk model for predicting survival in Japanese patients with HF, using parameters that are readily observable in a clinical setting.
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Miyagawa et al. (2018) conducted a cohort in Heart failure (n=1,214). Japan Heart Failure Model (JHFM) vs. Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) was evaluated on 5-year C-statistic for survival prediction in the validation cohort (95% CI 0.6400-0.789). The Japan Heart Failure Model accurately predicted 5-year survival in Japanese patients with heart failure, achieving a C-statistic of 0.717 in the validation cohort compared to 0.681 for the Seattle Heart Failure Model.
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