Integrating ethnobotanical knowledge and species distribution modelling to prioritize climate-resilient woody species in agroecosystems of northern Benin

The conservation of woody species in agroecosystems is a traditional practice in tropical Africa, particularly in Benin. Thus, the woody species to be prioritized for conservation in agroforestry should contribute to soil fertility improvement and climate change resilience. The current study aimed at developing a multi-criteria prioritization approach to identify priority preserved woody species that best support soil fertility improvement and have resilient climate habitat. Ethnobotanical data were collected through structured individual questionnaire survey with 335 randomly selected participants across three agroecological zones. Additionally, a forest inventory was conducted to assess the presence and the availability of the woody species in agroecosystems. Prioritization criteria were defined and scores assigned. Data were analysed using a chi-square test and Kruskal-Wallis’ test. The point scoring procedure and principal component analysis were used to identify priority woody species for conservation and soil fertility improvement per agroecological zone and overall. Habitat suitability modelling used to assess climate resilience of selected priority species was projected to 2060 using two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Species occurrence records were combined with bioclimatic and environmental predictors to calibrate models using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm. Modelling results were visualized using ArcGIS 10.8 software. Thirty-seven woody species were reported as protected in the studied agroecosystems. This conservation of woody species appears to depend on the sociolinguistic characteristics of the informants. The ten first species retained as priority for soil fertility improvement were Vitellaria paradoxa, Parkia biglobosa, Isoberlinia doka, Afzelia africana, Pterocarpus erinaceus, Prosopis africana, Borassus aethiopum, Diospyros mespiliformis, Tamarindus indica and Terminalia leiocarpa . Prioritization patterns varied across agroecological zones, reflecting their ecological specificity and local knowledge. Habitat suitability modelling revealed trends of either loss or gain in suitable areas, depending on the species, agroecological zone and bioclimatic variables. Some species showed severe declines in certain zones, whereas others exhibited robust recovery, depending on the climate scenarios and reveal both vulnerability and resilience among native taxa, thereby underscoring the need for targeted conservation strategies. Forest enrichment, assisted regeneration and native woody species parks establishment are recommended as mitigation measures.