The Effects of Breeding Stock Productivity on the U.S. Beef Cattle Cycle

The effects of breeding stock productivity on the U.S. beef cattle cycle were econometrically estimated. Growth in output per beef cow was hypothesized to impact inventory response via cattle prices and marketing alternatives. Beef productivity included carcass weights of steers, heifers, and cull cows but excluded carcass weights of dairy cattle and cattle imports. Results indicate that from ten years to an equilibrium period, the beef cow herd averaged 0.5% to 2.5% smaller compared to if zero productivity growth had occurred. In addition, productivity growth decreased the inventory elasticity of supply by 18% between 1960–74 and 1975–96.