Causation and nonrandomness in biological and geological time series; temperature as a proximal control of extinction and diversity

Nonrandomness in the geologic record results from constraints on direction andlor rate of change in phenomena. A major goal of historical geology, the explanation of non-random patterns, is often impeded by their time serial nature, which invalidates direct comparison of phenomena. However, sufficiently long sampling intervals, or more desirably, generalized differencing of the data, can reduce the constraints of contingency enough to allow direct bivariate comparison. Examples analyzing echinoid diversity and marine invertebrate extinction rates as functions of temperature and sea level are given. The results seem to support the notion that temperature is a more direct, proximal control on diversity and extinction than sea level.