Why household electrification in Rwanda outpaced Papua New Guinea (2000–2025): statecraft, derisking and dependency in the pursuit of universal energy access

At the turn of the twenty-first century, Rwanda and Papua New Guinea (PNG) ranked among the world’s least electrified countries. Reflective of a broader trend across the Global South, both countries initiated electricity sector privatisation and set ambitious targets to increase household access. Over the next 25 years, PNG made limited progress while Rwanda underwent one of the fastest electrification programmes in history. Why, from similar starting points and facing comparable challenges, did the two countries experience such sharply divergent outcomes? Combining insights from the secondary and grey literatures with documentary research and stakeholder interviews, two factors are highlighted as decisive. First, related in part to each country’s distinct history of state formation, contrasting levels of statecraft and ideational commitment were oriented towards expanding energy access. Second, Rwanda’s comprehensive deployment of derisking measures – aligned with the Wall Street Consensus – mobilised investment, while a lower level of risk mitigation deterred investment in PNG. Striking a more cautionary note, Rwandan electrification has occurred alongside declining energy sovereignty, rising foreign debt and shrinking policy space. Without alternatives to the prevailing development-as-derisking paradigm, efforts to expand energy access in the world’s least electrified countries will likely produce similarly new forms of heightened dependency.