Validation of a diatom–phosphorus calibration set for Sweden

A weighted averaging (WA) regression and calibration model for diatoms and total phosphorus (TP) was developed from a dataset of 45 surface‐sediment samples from Swedish lakes. Jack‐knifed error statistics were comparable with those for similar diatom–TP datasets: r2jack=0.47, root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP)=0.24 log10μg TP L–1 and mean bias=–0.002 log10 μg TP L–1 for the simple WA model; r2jack=0.36, RMSEP=0.27 log10 μg TP L–1 and mean bias=0.017 log10 μg TP L–1 for WA with tolerance downweighting. 2. The model was used to estimate TP concentrations for the Ekoln basin of Lake Mälaren using a 210Pb‐dated sediment core record. Highly eutrophic conditions developed in the basin in the 1960s as a result of nutrient inputs from cultivated land and the city of Uppsala. A reduction in the supply of phosphorus from sewage outlets in the late 1960s resulted in less eutrophic conditions. 3. The model results indicated levels of 50–60 μg TP L–1 prior to 1900. The rapid eutrophication of the lake basin after the 1950s and the subsequent recovery were evident from the diatom data. 4. Diatom‐inferred TP (DI–TP) values were validated by comparison with monitored data for the period 1966–95. The diatom model tended to underestimate TP at high levels (> 80 μg L–1) but overestimate at lower concentrations. 5. A good agreement was observed between the trends in TP concentration and the DI–TP concentration and the timing of the maximum was well reflected by the diatom‐based reconstruction. A significant correlation (r2=0.69, P < 0.01) was found between DI–TP and measured TP at this site.