Sensitivity of the overturning circulation of the Baltic Sea to climate change, a numerical experiment

An ocean model covering the Baltic Sea area is forced by several climate scenarios for a period extending from 1961 to 2100. The Baltic Sea overturning circulation is then analyzed. The analysis shows that this circulation decreases between the end of the 20th century and the end of the 21st century, and that the decrease is amplified in the case of the strongest greenhouse gas emission scenarios, which corresponds with the highest warming cases. The reasons behind this decrease in overturning circulation are investigated. A strong increase of thermal stratification is noticed at the level of the Baltic Sea mixed layer. Based on buoyancy flux considerations, we demonstrate that the decrease in overturning circulation coincides with the increase of thermal stratification. Evidence shows that the underlying process is linked to a smaller erosion of the halocline due to a higher shielding, itself linked with a stronger and longer seasonal thermocline. This theory works if surface wind mixing is not taken into account directly in the computation of buoyancy fluxes.