Project duration prediction using a Monte Carlo simulation of the periodic output of the project resources

Bounding the project completion date for upcoming and active projects is important to organizations that perform projects. The output of these projects is often delivered to other organizations. For the purposes of planning, the customer organizations need a commitment date. One method for establishing this commitment is to simulate the project duration, using Monte Carlo methods for each task. I show an approach that models the periodic output of the resources, permitting more flexibility for modeling the real work of an organization.