Mating success of tethered gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), females was measured in 9 newly established, low-density populations in Virginia and West Virginia in 1993–1994. Mating success was correlated with male moth capture rate in milk carton pheromone-baited traps located at the same sites. The instantaneous mating probability for virgin females averaged 0.15 times the mean male capture rate. Average mortality of tethered females caused by predation was 52% per day. Counts of males in pheromone traps combined with expectations of population growth can be used to predict likelihood of persistence (versus extinction) of isolated gypsy moth populations.
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Sharov et al. (1995) studied this question.