Regional moisture balance control of landslide motion: Implications for landslide forecasting in a changing climate

Research Article| April 01, 2012 Regional moisture balance control of landslide motion: Implications for landslide forecasting in a changing climate Jeffrey A. Coe Jeffrey A. Coe U.S. Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Jeffrey A. Coe U.S. Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, USA Publisher: Geological Society of America Received: 06 Oct 2011 Revision Received: 01 Nov 2011 Accepted: 06 Nov 2011 First Online: 09 Mar 2017 Online ISSN: 1943-2682 Print ISSN: 0091-7613 © 2012 Geological Society of America Geology (2012) 40 (4): 323–326. https://doi.org/10.1130/G32897.1 Article history Received: 06 Oct 2011 Revision Received: 01 Nov 2011 Accepted: 06 Nov 2011 First Online: 09 Mar 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email Permissions Search Site Citation Jeffrey A. Coe; Regional moisture balance control of landslide motion: Implications for landslide forecasting in a changing climate. Geology 2012;; 40 (4): 323–326. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/G32897.1 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyGeology Search Advanced Search Abstract I correlated 12 years of annual movement of 18 points on a large, continuously moving, deep-seated landslide with a regional moisture balance index (moisture balance drought index, MBDI). I used MBDI values calculated from a combination of historical precipitation and air temperature data from A.D. 1895 to 2010, and downscaled climate projections using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 emissions scenario for 2011–2099. At the landslide, temperature is projected to increase ∼0.5 °C/10 yr between 2011 and 2099, while precipitation decreases at a rate of ∼2 mm/10 yr. Landslide movement correlated with the MBDI with integration periods of 12 and 48 months. The correlation between movement and MBDI suggests that the MBDI functions as a proxy for groundwater pore pressures and landslide mobility. I used the correlation to forecast decreasing landslide movement between 2011 and 2099, with the head of the landslide expected to stop moving in the mid-21st century. The MBDI, or a similar moisture balance index that accounts for evapotranspiration, has considerable potential as a tool for forecasting the magnitude of ongoing deep-seated landslide movement, and for assessing the onset or likelihood of regional, deep-seated landslide activity. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.