Winter climate variability changes over Europe and the Mediterranean region under increased greenhouse conditions

Regional changes in seasonal precipitation over Europe have been analysed in two 30‐year simulations (current climate and A2‐SRES increased greenhouse‐gases scenario) using a Global (GCM) and a Regional Climate Model (RCM). The analysis of the simulations is approached using maximum covariance analysis (MCA) to establish the relationship between seasonal precipitation over the European‐Mediterranean region and the North Atlantic atmospheric patterns in the winter season. Our results show that the leading MCA modes in the control simulation are similar for both models and agree well with previous studies using observations. The analysis of the A2‐SRES scenario RCM results show changes with respect to the control simulation: the first two modes present slight shifts in their centres of action, whereas the third mode resembles more closely what is obtained in current climate simulations. Some differences, specially for the third mode, are obtained when comparing the RCM and the GCM simulations.