What does this research mean for the field?

Atmospheric circulation is the dominant driver of summer temperature extremes across Europe and North Africa, accounting for 67–90% of the influence, while the amplifying effect of soil moisture deficits exhibits a distinct northward gradient. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.METHODOLOGICAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.SUPPORTS_CONSENSUS.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To quantify and decouple the individual contributions of atmospheric circulation, soil-moisture deficits, and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide to boreal summer heat extremes across diverse climate zones.

September 8, 2026Weather and Climate DynamicsOpen Access

Quantifying atmospheric and land drivers of hot temperature extremes through explainable Artificial Intelligence

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

AMAlejandro Mesa LPLluís Palma MDMarkus G. Donat

Discussion

Member takes

Overview

Machine-learning analysis reveals atmospheric circulation dominates summer temperature extremes across Europe and North Africa, highlighting key land-atmosphere interactions during heatwaves.

Key Points

To quantify and decouple the individual contributions of atmospheric circulation, soil-moisture deficits, and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide to boreal summer heat extremes across diverse climate zones.
Developed an explainable machine-learning framework using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values across six European and North African locations (Córdoba, Lyon, Hannover, Stockholm, Belgrade, and Marrakech).
Evaluated predictor contributions including large-scale atmospheric circulation (500 hPa geopotential height), multi-layer soil-moisture anomalies, drought indices (SPI and SPEI), and global carbon dioxide concentrations.
Conducted sensitivity analyses across alternative extreme heat definitions (such as the 80th percentile) and detailed case studies of the 2018 Hannover and 2021 Córdoba heatwaves.
Large-scale atmospheric circulation dominated extreme temperature predictability at all locations, accounting for 67% to 90% of total mean SHAP values, with the 500 hPa geopotential height field contributing the most.
Soil moisture exhibited a pronounced northward gradient of influence—accounting for 0.5% in Marrakech, 7.7% in Córdoba, and 15% in Lyon—with negative correlations across depth levels confirming that land drying amplifies heat extremes.
Case studies of the 2018 Hannover and 2021 Córdoba heatwaves confirmed the amplified role of land-surface drying in northern locations and identified measurable contributions from anthropogenic carbon dioxide concentrations.

Cite This Study

Mesa et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a9fd70a58e84d0ff5b45851 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1709-2026

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

September 8, 2026Weather and Climate DynamicsOpen Access

Quantifying atmospheric and land drivers of hot temperature extremes through explainable Artificial Intelligence

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

AMAlejandro Mesa LPLluís Palma MDMarkus G. Donat

Discussion

Member takes

Overview

Machine-learning analysis reveals atmospheric circulation dominates summer temperature extremes across Europe and North Africa, highlighting key land-atmosphere interactions during heatwaves.

Key Points

To quantify and decouple the individual contributions of atmospheric circulation, soil-moisture deficits, and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide to boreal summer heat extremes across diverse climate zones.
Developed an explainable machine-learning framework using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values across six European and North African locations (Córdoba, Lyon, Hannover, Stockholm, Belgrade, and Marrakech).
Evaluated predictor contributions including large-scale atmospheric circulation (500 hPa geopotential height), multi-layer soil-moisture anomalies, drought indices (SPI and SPEI), and global carbon dioxide concentrations.
Conducted sensitivity analyses across alternative extreme heat definitions (such as the 80th percentile) and detailed case studies of the 2018 Hannover and 2021 Córdoba heatwaves.
Large-scale atmospheric circulation dominated extreme temperature predictability at all locations, accounting for 67% to 90% of total mean SHAP values, with the 500 hPa geopotential height field contributing the most.
Soil moisture exhibited a pronounced northward gradient of influence—accounting for 0.5% in Marrakech, 7.7% in Córdoba, and 15% in Lyon—with negative correlations across depth levels confirming that land drying amplifies heat extremes.
Case studies of the 2018 Hannover and 2021 Córdoba heatwaves confirmed the amplified role of land-surface drying in northern locations and identified measurable contributions from anthropogenic carbon dioxide concentrations.

Cite This Study

Mesa et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a9fd70a58e84d0ff5b45851 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1709-2026

Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark