Case report demonstrates poor predictive power of cognitive polygenic scores in an individual, highlighting the limitations of population-level genetic instruments.
Background. A polygenic score is a population-level instrument. When a percentile from one is returned to a single person, it is routinely read as a forecast of that person. This report examines what one such percentile does and does not license in the individual who carries it. Case. The subject is the author, an adult male, Chinese (CHS panel). A cognitive polygenic score (PGS003724, catalog trait "Intelligence quotient") was computed from a consumer genotyping array (MyHeritage, Global Screening Array, GRCh37) and ranked empirically against the Southern Han Chinese (CHS) subsample of 1000 Genomes Phase 3, n = 105, with subject and panel scored on the byte-identical 300,948-marker frame shared by both, placing him at rank 56 of 105, the 53.33rd percentile. The Reynolds Adaptable Intelligence Test (RAIT; PAR, 2013 edition, edition not printed on certificate), group-administered 2 March 2019 at an Australian Mensa sitting by a registered psychologist (MAPS; name and registration number held by the author and available to the editor on request), returned a Fluid Intelligence index standard score of 148. Result. Under the primary ancestry-attenuated calibration, the score moves the conditional mean of the predictive distribution by 0.22 points, from 100 to 100.22, against a residual SD of 14.77. The residual SD is 67.69 times the shift the score induces. The measured value sits 3.23 residual SD above that mean. Under the model, approximately 609 individuals per 1,000,000 carrying this score would be expected at or above the measured value. Nothing here is falsified; a discrepancy of this size is what the model itself predicts at this rate. Conclusion. The publishable finding is negative and quantitative: at the individual level this point estimate is uninformative, because the score displaces the conditional mean by about a sixty-eighth of the residual spread. The matched-frame rescore against the full reference panel was executed and is reported in Section III; the pre-specified withdrawal condition was not met. A reporting standard follows, mapped to the PRS Reporting Statement and extended with substrate disclosure, per-score marker recovery, and the executed rescore. Author of record: R. E. W. Kho, ORCID 0009-0009-8054-9282. Substrate: consumer genotyping array (MyHeritage GSA, GRCh37); reference panel 1000 Genomes phase 3 CHS, n = 105, matched 300,948-marker frame. No raw genotype data are released. Psychiatric axes withheld from publication.
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R. E. W. Kho (2026) studied this question.
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