Policy Implementation and Competitiveness Ranking Trajectories in the GCC: Examining Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 Relative to Resource-Similar Peers (2022–2026)

Natural resource endowments are often treated as major determinants of regional competitiveness, yet institutional and rentier-state scholarship suggests that institutional architecture, reform capacity, and policy implementation may also shape competitiveness trajectories. This study examines Saudi Arabia’s competitiveness trajectory under Vision 2030 in comparison with Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. The analysis covers 2022–2026, complemented by historical IMD benchmarks and independently sourced real-economy indicators, particularly economic growth and foreign direct investment (FDI). Saudi Arabia improved from 24th in 2022 to 13th in 2026, with Government Efficiency and Business Efficiency both reaching 4th globally. However, FDI remained at 1.25% of GDP, substantially below the UAE’s 7.90% and the 5.7% Vision 2030 target. Comparative evidence further indicates that neither infrastructure strength nor governance centralization alone accounts for observed competitiveness trajectories. The findings reveal incomplete correspondence between ranking improvement and real-economy transmission, supporting a conditional institutional interpretation in which reform capacity operates alongside regulatory credibility, implementation quality, and broader economic conditions. The study distinguishes reform velocity, institutional effectiveness, real-economy transmission, and institutional durability as analytically distinct dimensions of institutional transformation. Given its small-N descriptive comparative design, the study identifies theory-consistent patterns rather than causal effects of Vision 2030.