Observational network analysis reveals dual effects of transaction structures on default risk in Chinese listed firms, indicating that scale and closure amplify credit vulnerability.
Firms are embedded in transaction systems whose organization can generate both coordination benefits and relational exposure. Using disclosed related-party transactions (RPTs), we construct annual weighted bipartite networks for 2674 Chinese A-share listed firms and examine 26,264 RPT-active firm-year observations from 2003 to 2024. The analysis distinguishes three firm-level dimensions—relationship scale, transaction concentration, and projected shared-counterparty position—from local bipartite microstructures. The firm-level evidence reveals a double-edged pattern: broader and more valuable RPT relationships are associated with lower Merton and KMV distance to default (DD), and projected degree is associated with lower Merton DD, whereas a higher top-three-related-party share is associated with higher KMV DD. Direction-specific estimates reinforce this distinction. Scale is negatively associated with DD on both the seller/provider and buyer/recipient sides, concentration is generally positive (especially on the buyer/recipient side), and seller/provider projected degree is negatively associated with KMV DD. At the local level, closed 2 × 2 presence and intensity are negatively associated with Merton DD, while simple degree-based forms and shared-counterparty bridges provide less stable differentiation. Observed closure substantially exceeds degree-sequence-preserving randomized benchmarks, and excess closure remains negatively associated with Merton and Bharath–Shumway DD after relationship opportunities and counterparty popularity are controlled. The results establish transaction scale, value allocation, projected reach, and repeated local sharing as complementary signals for structure-sensitive credit risk monitoring in complex transaction systems.
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Xu et al. (2026) studied this question.
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