Dynamical systems analysis demonstrates non-hyperbolic fixed point convergence in a discrete SVIR model, highlighting its capacity for real-time epidemic forecasting.
We model the effect of vaccination on an epidemic by applying a discrete-time dynamical system defined by a nonlinear operator on the 3D simplex. Our study is conducted using a discrete susceptible-infected-recovered model with vaccination (SVIR). Our research focuses on the dynamical properties of this operator and the results obtained enable real-time forecasting. We find all fixed points and demonstrate that each fixed point is of non-hyperbolic type. Moreover, we show that every orbit approaches a fixed point.
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Jamilov et al. (2026) studied this question.
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