Elite Overaccumulation and the Feudalization of Capital: A Five-Variable Dynamical-Systems Model of Technofeudal Collapse

We develop a five-variable coupled dynamical system modeling the structural transition of contemporary capitalism toward technofeudalism. The state variables: feudal capital (F), productive capital (K), elite overproduction (E), systemic debt (D), and natural resources (R) interact through Lotka–Volterra competition, logistic saturation, and bilinear feedback, supplemented by a bounded logistic Gini diagnostic (G). We define collapse operationally as the simultaneous breach of three or more of five reference thresholds (feudal dominance, elite crisis, debt insolvency, resource exhaustion, extreme inequality). Because the inequality threshold is already met at t0, Tc is set by the feudal-dominance crossing and is definitional in part: excluding G, or counting only indicators not yet breached at t0, yields ≈2053 (debt insolvency), and varying the rule spans 2031–2075. Parameters are set within theory-motivated ranges against sparse historical points over 1990–2023; because the inverse problem is severely ill-conditioned, they are not treated as precisely estimated, and the model is exploratory rather than a forecasting instrument. The baseline indicates a threshold-driven transition on the order of one generation, with an indicative collapse time Tc≈2044 (central 90% conditional sensitivity range ≈2039–2052 under a ±30% independent-perturbation design); we report these as conditional descriptors of model behavior, not predictive probabilities. Across a 5000-member ensemble, the robust finding is qualitative: no realization avoided collapse before 2070, constraining the direction and ordering of the dynamics rather than the inevitability of any date. Sobol analysis identifies the feudal expansion rate α and crowding coefficient δ as dominant drivers; a frozen-Jacobian eigenvalue trace is positive at the 2024 state (λmax=+0.016>0) and turns negative around 2030; reported as an instantaneous growth diagnostic along a nonequilibrium trajectory, not as a stability criterion. In the model, no single-domain reform prevents collapse, whereas coordinated antitrust, ecological, and financial intervention yields superadditive delay (>56 years). No observations are withheld from the parameter specification, so every figure is in-sample, and the dates are ordinal markers of sequence, not forecasts. Extending the HANDY and Goodwin–Keen tradition, this is, to our knowledge, the first dynamical-systems operationalization of technofeudalism: a diagnostic laboratory with explicit, falsifiable thresholds.