Selective solidarity: organizational decoupling and the uneven activation of the EU’s Temporary Protection Directive

The EU’s 2022 activation of the Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) for Ukrainian refugees marks a significant shift from its fragmented approach during the 2015–16 migration crisis. This paper explores why a supranational tool was available during both crises but was only used in 2022. Using a mixed-methods approach – including quantitative frame analysis of 1019 EU documents, process tracing, and fifty expert interviews – the study suggests that the EU’s crisis response is best understood through the concept of organizational decoupling. Decoupling operated differently across the two crises: through non-activation in 2015–16 and selective implementation after activation in 2022. This decoupling arises from institutional fragmentation, geopolitical biases, and ideological divides among member states. By applying a decoupling framework, this research not only explains a key policy divergence but also highlights the contingent and politically limited nature of solidarity in EU migration policy.