Asymmetric Recovery in the Korean Theatrical Film Market After COVID-19: Supply–Demand Structural Changes and Implications for Market Resilience

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted both theatrical exhibition and audience participation, making aggregate box-office rebound an incomplete indicator of market recovery. This study examines when and how supply-side seat allocation and demand-side audience response changed in the major-release segment of the Korean theatrical film market. The analysis sample comprises films that entered the daily Top 5 by seat count at least once; collectively, these films accounted for 93.78% of total box-office revenue. Using 2401 film-week observations from January 2018 to June 2024, we identified structural change points in weekly seat and audience changes without prespecifying break dates and examined how their determinants differed across periods. The demand-side change preceded the supply-side change during the outbreak, whereas the supply-side change preceded the demand-side change by roughly one year during recovery. Period variation was concentrated in supply-side seat adjustment across release weeks and competitive responses, and in the demand-side seat–audience relationship. Post-period estimates for all four identified relationships moved toward their pre-pandemic values, but recovery remained incomplete and uneven. These findings distinguish structural recovery from aggregate rebound and provide evidence relevant to assessing sustainable recovery in venue-based cultural markets.