Development of a Value-based Algorithm for Inpatient Triage of Elderly Hip Fracture Patients

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to combine a validated middle-age and geriatric trauma risk assessment tool (STTGMA) with a novel cost-prediction tool to create an objective triage tool for elderly hip fractures that would guide value-based care initiatives. METHODS: From October 2014 to January 2018, all patients aged ≥55 years who were admitted with a primary diagnosis of hip fracture to a single level 1 trauma center were enrolled. Upon evaluation in the emergency department, demographics, injury severity, and functional status were recorded to calculate the trauma triage score (STTGMARisk). A model to predict high-cost hip fracture patients was created using similar variables (STTGMACost). RESULTS: Three hundred sixty-one consecutive operative hip fracture patients were enrolled. Inpatient mortalities were skewed toward STTGMARisk3 with 21.4% of patients in this high-risk group ultimately expiring during their hospitalization. High-cost patients were correctly skewed to the STTGMACost2 and STTGMACost3 groups with 88.9% of all high-cost operatively treated hip fracture correctly triaged to these cohorts. Statistically significant variations were found in cost within each STTGMARisk group. CONCLUSIONS: A simple risk score calculated upon admission (STTGMARisk and STTGMACost) was able to be used as a triage tool not only to differentiate increased mortality risk but also to predict high-cost patients based on resource utilization in hip fracture patients. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic, level II.