Enhancing the reliability of on-demand transport services: a user-based schedule adjustment policy

On-demand transport services-including demand-responsive public transport, ride-hailing, food delivery, and parcel delivery-are increasingly important to urban mobility and logistics. Service reliability is crucial because delays reduce user satisfaction, service attractiveness, and profitability. However, travel time variability in road networks makes such reliable planning and time communication of on-demand services complicated. This paper proposes a user-based schedule adjustment policy that explicitly accounts for users' cost of travel time variability. Using a scheduling delay framework, we evaluate the amount users are willing to pay to eliminate travel time variability. Two indicators-the generalised certainty equivalent and reliability premium-then determine the required schedule adjustments. Depending on request timing flexibility, these may involve advancing departure times, delaying arrival times, or combining both. The policy translates user-side reliability costs into practical schedule information for on-demand services. Numerical examples demonstrate how it supports reliable time communication while maintaining the attractiveness of communicated times to users.